ICAP Weather Commentary
Tuesday November 18, 2008
Prepared by: Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist ICAP Energy
***Cold digs into the east, warmth hangs on out west and the middle could go either way.***
Canadian high pressure is centered over Iowa this morning with the lead cold front now off the east coast and about to clear Florida. The cold air is now in place and should last for the bulk of this forecast. A reinforcing shot arrives Thursday and Friday which should be the coldest of the air masses dropping temperatures in some places close to 15 below normal. A highly amplified western ridge and eastern trough will dominate into the weekend. Precipitation is lacking other than in the Lakes where lake effect snow will continue. It has piled up in excess of a foot in some places already. The western ridge while strong will see enough weakening in the NW to allow a couple of weak fronts later in the week with a few showers. The models have upped totals a bit (up to an inch in the mountains) for the five days, but that may be a little optimistic. It's possible though warmer air with a little more moisture could compensate for pretty weak energy with these systems.
Day 6-10 discussion:
The pattern relaxes a little next week, but how much is the question. The GFS boldly brings the warm air east to the point where even the east coast could warm a day or two above normal. That is a sizeable change from yesterday. The European does not show this amount of warming. To get there, the charts form a southern storm early next week which would head NE. It does not look that strong. I am comfortable going less cold in the east, but not yet to the point in going away from a below normal bias. I still believe the west is warmer than average but with an increase in Pacific oriented weather systems in the NW. The Plains and Midwest may start to lean a little warmer with the pattern becoming less amplified.
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist
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