NYMEX Henry Hub Report
Date: May 17, 2012
Nat Gas is trading off 1.2 cents at 2.628 as of 8:50am ET. Yesterday was quite a ride as we punched through 2.607, and staying above this level today will further consolidate this trend. 2nd Month/Prompt has just started to tighten a little which is pulling for the Bears. Everyone is waiting for the heat, but the shut-ins and lease run-outs are probably more the culprit. On the 240 minute chart, which I like to use because it divideses sessions well, the slow stochastics are significantly overbought.
On the storage front, this analyst is at +51 on the Bullish side, the Bloomberg median is at 54, but the bias is to the down side on average over the past few reports. Using the 51 number, we would be 58.3% above the 5 yr average, and 40.4% above the 5 year max, but if you look at a straight line projection of the below normal injections, we get back in range by mid-August. This should push prices higher for the summer. I am Bullish on the day, even if overbought. I’ll leave you with some charts.
Resistance
2.711 2.801 2.920 3.035
Support
2.607 2.531 2.464 2.385
Drew Wozniak
Vice President, Market Research and Development
ICAP Energy LLC
Drew.Wozniak@us.icapenergy.com
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