ICAP Weather Commentary
Thursday March 11, 2010
Prepared by: Meteorologist Andy Weingarten
***El Nino pattern to continue for the next 10 days.***
The main attributes of a spring El Nino pattern are lack of cold in the Northern US. lack of warmth in the Southern US and an active sequence of fronts from the Pacific east across the southern tier of states. That pretty much sums up the month so far and I see this continuing. One additional thing to throw in is slower moving systems. We have that in the Plains this morning. This has not moved much the last couple of days and will take until early next week to get off the Atlantic coast. So far, the rain in the Midwest has been lighter than expected but in the SE it has been heavier. It looks like this will combine nicely to form a low along the coast for the weekend. This would be another giant winter storm if only the cold air was available. instead the warm air, the 1-2 inch rains and snow melt will be a potential flooding situation in the interior NE this weekend. As the front passes by, only marginally cooler air fills in behind it. Northern temperatures will remain above normal. An upper low in the SW is keeping things cooler there, but so far not too wet. Better moisture exists with as front in the PNW that will bring some moderate rain and mountain snows the next couple of days. Things should dry out there for the weekend into early next week.
Day 6-10 Discussion:
I see a weaker storm sequence in the south next week and also very well suppressed. The next low may track in the Northern Gulf and Florida before going out to sea. If there was cold air across the border available, this would be the type of short term pattern to allow it southward. But, at best it is only slightly cooler than this week so I still see a small warm bias in the northern and eastern states. The overall pattern looks drier this period. Out west, it warms especially in the SW. Fronts into the PNW from the Pacific look rather weak so moisture amounts should run below normal.
Andy Weingarten
Meteorologist, ICAP Energy