ICAP Weather Commentary
Wednesday July 28, 2010
Prepared by: Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist ICAP Energy
**July ending with a little less heat and a very quiet tropical theater. Neither situation expected to last.**
Unusual heat in mid- summer is usually characterized by heat advisories. Today they are confined to a small area in the Midwest (Illinois and Indiana) and a small area of the SE (Georgia/South Carolina). the northern one will be gone tomorrow as a moderately strong cold front moves south and east. Ahead of this 90s and high humidity cover a good portion of the eastern third of the country, but 80s may return by Friday to much of the east coast and Ohio Valley. It may not last long but this should be the coolest air mass since before the July 4'th holiday. The front should have a decent line of rain and storms along it as well. Once into the southern US it begins to fall apart as it out runs the upper level support which this time of year usually can't get too far south. The summer heat ridge starts to re align on an axis from the SE NW into the Central Plains. A weak upper low is still sitting over the west coast, not strong enough for moisture but sufficient for a small cool bias. It keeps much of the monsoon moisture over the interior west active especially over Arizona and New Mexico.
Day 6-10 discussion:
The summer ridge makes an attempt to expand north and east next week, but so far is shown with little success. I see an increase in temperatures over ERCOT due to a decrease in rainfall. Farther north and east, I will maintain a small warm bias in early August, but temperatures should for the most part stay below 95 degrees and over most of the Lakes and NE may stay just shy of 90 placing them near normal. Cooler air remains quite limited, only along the immediate west coast. A weak northern storm track continues so some rainfall is likely continuing the summer long wet pattern from the Plains to the Lakes. Many of the charts are showing eastern Atlantic tropical development via waves off the African coastline next week. Whether that is climatology talking or a legitimate beginning to the season is too early to tell.
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist
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