ICAP Weather Commentary
Thursday July 2, 2009
Prepared by: Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist ICAP Energy
**Cool trough to slowly weaken over the Lakes, but little hot as a firecracker weather to be found.**
The patterns are slow to change, but I think the upper low over the Lakes will at least begin to weaken. Before it does, another day of heavy rain and cool air will occur over the NE. The coolness extends well south, but the unusual coolness should fade away tomorrow. Still, it is a below normal situation for many east of the Mississippi for the holiday weekend. There are a couple of warm pockets out there. One is in ERCOT where the now persistent dryness is allowing temperatures close to 100 for the big cities once again. It is difficult to see this expand north right now for another storm comes out of the Rockies and into the Plains tomorrow. This low and its accompanying shower activity should translate east through the Midwest and Ohio Valley this weekend and eventually the east again early next week. The second area of warmth has bubbled up into the PNW. It is sufficient for a heat advisory around Portland the next couple of days (highs in the mid 90s). This warmth should break down significantly by the first of next week.
Day 6-10 discussion:
The Lakes trough weakens and shifts to just off the Atlantic coast next week. It won't be as cool or as wet, yet still a little below normal east of the Appalachians. A stronger upper low takes shape in the west with a more widespread below normal profile returning there. it looks strongest the middle of next week then gradually weakens. Some rainfall is possible in the NW, but it is still does not look like anything significant. The models try to expand a ridge north out of ERCOT as a response to these two lows. There may be some success at this, but the data on the charts look too warm. I don't see anything well above normal occurring as it looks too wet in the north for that. Farther south, well above normal is 105 or better and the ridge is not strong enough for those kind of temperatures. You may notice little discussion of the tropics is occurring. That is because it appears to remain very quiet. Any storms are likely to be confined to the Pacific basin.
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist
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