Economic Events

Coal

Geopolitical energy concerns (= higher priced alternatives, weak dollar) continue to support coal; Corollary, world’s largest pulverized coal producer, Macarthur Coal continues to pump water out of coal pits = update end of month vis-à-vis force majeure; 3 of 7 Idemitsu Australian mines likewise flooded = early 2009 production resumption; Year-on-year, German February coal prices up +33.8 percent; UK 2007 coal-fired power output: 29 TWh =  down -9.6% vs 2006; Chinese coal industry profits January + February 2008 up +67 percent; Goldman Sachs analyst Molnar ups recommendations on US producers Consol Energy and Alpha Natural Resources; Global coal producers’ equity shares for the five days ending 28th March 2008 up +9.10 percent, year-to-date down -2.16 percent …

Crude Oil

Bulls 37 percent ... Neutral 21 percent ... Bears 42 percent for week Monday 31^st March through Friday 4th April 2008 Bloomberg Crude Oil survey; Corollary, OPEC weekly basket price down -$1.16 to $98.24 = U.K. average retail prices continue to see > £1 GBP/litre; Basra Oil Terminal 100.000 bpd pipeline sees temporary damage = sabotage; Sanford Bernstein analyst Dell 2008 crude forecast at $92.30 = up +27 percent on rising marginal costs and declining reserves per well; Deutsche Bank analyst Sieminski  ups Brent 2008 forecast +12 percent to $95.50 (from $85), and 2009 forecast +28 percent to $102.50 (from $85) = tight markets, weak dollar, volatile credit markets; California Q4 2007 sees 7th consecutive quarter of declining gasoline consumption; April 2008, China to become net gasoline importer = widespread shortages + refinery maintenance; British Airways CEO Walsh: fuel costs “big challenge”; Global oil & gas operators’ equity shares for the five days ending 28th March 2008 up +6.08 percent, year-to-date up +0.73 percent … 

Electricity

UK Meteorological Office forecast to midweek: Monday to Wednesday to see outbreaks of rain, then Thursday+ cloudy with some rain; Spot uranium sees €47.31; E.ON acquires Endesa’s Spanish, French, Italian and Polish assets for for €11.8 billion; Suez CEO Mestrallet: interest in financial + operational role with British Energy; Platts sees Dutch-German curves widening on rising coal and crude prices = Dutch coal power 28 percent, German coal power 49 percent; Iberdrola outlines 3 gigawatt offshore wind plans; Tepco to fast-track coal + natural gas new plant construction = new nuclear safety concerns; Global electric utilities’ equity shares for the five days ending 28th March 2008 up +0.02 percent, year-to-date down -13.76 percent …

Emissions

EU permits see eight day low 28th March = expectations of 2 percent decreased CO2 output; UK Environment Secretary Benn: 2007 UK GHG emissions down -2 percent to 639.4 million tones = meeting Kyoto Protocol obligations; 95 percent of Poland’s generation coal = Economy Minister Pawlak seeking slow CO2 auction process vs €5 billion permits needed annually; JP Morgan to buy UK carbon offset provider, Climate Care; Canada’s largest publicly traded utility TransAlta CEO Snyder: "The broader the geography of any carbon-trading program, the better it would be for the industry to give it more optionality” vs Alberta provincial Premier Stelmach: “We're not a province that's going to be either buying credits from someplace else or looking at any inter-regional transfer of wealth” …

Freight

Baltic Dry Index as of 28th March 2008: 8069 (up +185 from 27th March’s 7884 … year-to-date down -9 percent, 1st February-to-date up +31 percent); Tanker major Frontline shares up +8.1 percent  = acquires 5.2 stake in largest U.S. oil tanker owner, Overseas Shipholding Group Inc; Economist article highlight: “some consolation to remember that although the shipping industry is among the first to feel the chill of a slowdown, it will be also be the first to benefit from a recovery, whenever that comes”; FT report: maritime industry to see shortage of qualified crews = increased costs; Marseilles strike ends; Global water transportation equity shares for the five days ending 28th March 2008 up +3.74 percent, year-to-date down -8.41 percent ...

Metals

Bulls 50 percent ... Neutral 44 percent … Bears 6 percent for week Monday, 31st March through Friday, 4th April 2008 Bloomberg Copper survey; Slowing global economy concerns = prices still up +7.2 percent for the week ending 28th March; LME copper inventories down -5.4 percent to 115,225 metric tonnes; UBS analyst Brebner ups 2008 average forecast to $3.50 per pound(from $3.00), 2009 to $4.00 (from $3.40), 2010 to $4.50 (from $3.10); Gold futures down to $936.80 = less inflation + economic weakness; Corollary, Barrick Gold oks $32 million Allied Gold stake; Vale do Rio Doce proposed $90 billion Xstrata takeover nixed; Global natural gas utilities equity shares for the five days ending 28th March 2008 up +6.29 percent, year-to-date down -2.33 percent ...

Natural Gas

UK’s National Grid shows demand 28th March at 335 million cubic metres per day > seasonal norms; British net 2007 imports up +74 percent to 20.3 billion cubic metres = UK production down -9.5 percent and demand up +1.5 percent; Platts reports forecasts of tight April = fairly cold weather forecasts + reduced production; Gazprom Deputy CEO Medvedev: “We are not finished with Rosukrenergo ... we have a system of long-term contracts with Rosukrenergo in international legislation” = “threat” to European energy security remains; Asian spot LNG sees $14/MMBtu = tight supply, prolonged winter; Global natural gas utilities equity shares for the five days ending 28th March 2008 up +1.80 percent, year-to-date down -5.00 percent ...